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Can you translate this to American?
Northeasterners want to vote for our former president who was sentenced on trial for corruption.
The northeast is the poorest region in the country and the former president is a socialist.
Brazilian leftists are happy because their candidate from a morally bankrupt party is pooling well on very poor states like he has consistently for two years, and want you to believe this is good news for them even though he isn't even legally electable because he's in jail for corruption.
Yes but his designated successor will win, just like in 2010 and 2014
Yes, its definitely better to support a guy who wants to recreate a military junta to rule the country...
I hope Bolsonaro wins and cuts off internet access for huehues tho
I hope Bolsonaro wins and then turns into a liberal moderate limpwristed cuckold when Congress vetoes his agenda
I wonder who people like him vote for:
It's not like the only candidates are Lula or Bolsonaro.
>his designated successor will win
The same polls OP presented also show his voting base being split between the three other major candidates, with Marina Silva getting most of them. The supposedly anti-Lula, Bolsonaro, currently is set up to inherit almost as many votes as PT's official successor lmao
What you people have a hard time understanding is that PT's base is not very politically savvy people, but mostly semi-literate hicks from the northeast of the country. Getting them to do what they want is like herding cats. Without Lula to campaign for him, his successor is much less likely to win than Dilma.
>who wants to recreate a military junta to rule the country
He never said anything close to that. Where do you get your news from? Irnnically enough Lula has threatened the press and the internet way more than Bolsonaro has. They openly speak of controling the media and the internet.
>I hope Bolsonaro wins and then turns into a liberal moderate limpwristed cuckold when Congress vetoes his agenda
Most leftists said the same thing about Lula. He essentially became a populist social-democrat liberal when elected.
He would very likely vote for Alkmin but would easily support Lula's candidacy now or in the past as long as he doesn't get heat for it. People like him usually vote for the status quo.
All I want is to be a Germanic-tier blonde white southern Brazilian living in a lavish gated community in Sao Paulo and buying caixas misteriosas for thousands of dollars every week just to show off on YT.
Christ, that guy is literally god, his life is wonderful.
>Germanic-tier blonde
He doesn't even look very germanic or is a natural blonde. He's probably some italian or has generic portuguese descent and is from São Paulo, not the south, considering his accent and looks.
>He doesn't even look very germanic or is a natural blonde.
looks pretty germanic imo
still white and rich as fuck
I wish I were him
Does it really matter who Brazilians will vote for though? Seems like Latin American countries are unchangeable. Look at Argentina, Macri and Kirchner are like fire and water yet Argentina was and still is in a crisis and on the verge of bankrupcy.
Brazil will always be a violent, poor 3rd world country with isles of wealth here and there. No one will change that.
Uh, ok. The state of Paraná has a lot of people of polish descent. A lot of rich white farmers and industrialists too.
Not really, his choice of a successor is a joke (Fernando Haddad) who lost his reelection for mayor in 2016, in fact his party went into freefall in the 2016 elections, the only thing they have is Lula, without him they are Zergs with no cerebrate.
>Look at Argentina, Macri and Kirchner are like fire and water
Congress is fucking Macri over, plus just because he says things in opposition to Kirchner doesn't actually mean he'll do them, he may well simply be too incompetent.
>Brazil will always be a violent
This country was actually fairly peaceful up until the 70s when crime rates started increasing, and even just ~15 years ago a lot of states still had low crime rates.
The thing about presidential republics is that even if the president changes they're still limited by congress. It's an even bigger problem if there are a million parties and everyone wants a slice of the pie to support the government.
This keeps the status quo.
Just look at Latin American politics, it's pretty much all like that. Presidential systems with many parties.
>Does it really matter who Brazilians will vote for though?
Not particularly in the long run, I don't believe in this continent's future either. Short run though, a Lula presidency would be a disaster. The market would crash immediately, and our currency would become less valuable.
I think a lot of middle-class people like Bolsonaro simply because he promises more police and guns, not so much about conservative values or anything else. A increasingly humiliated and victimized tax-paying voting base just want a way of protecting themselves in this shithole, and don't really care about grand political ambitions or some socialist or ultranationalist nutjob's pipe dream.
It's a lot less about nationalism, and more about having some modicum of security against the favelado horde.
Do you think he's a farmer? He doesn't look like one.
>I think a lot of middle-class people like Bolsonaro simply because he promises more police and guns
It's also a vapid promise since the president can do next to nothing on those issues. State governments are the ones responsible for policing, but for the most part the states are so fucking broke they can't afford shit due to our completely insane model of revenue redistribution that screws over local governments, especially in small towns and poorer states. Literally the only reason SP is the closest thing to a safe state right now is because there's police crammed everywhere since it has by far the strongest economy.
>This country was actually fairly peaceful up until the 70s when crime rates started increasing, and even just ~15 years ago a lot of states still had low crime rates.
So what did you do with the blacks before the 70s?
>farmer
Farms are a literal industry. His father could be a wealthy land owner.
The blackest state, Bahia, had very low crime rates up until the mid 2000s.
so what happened? where did that surge of crime rates come from?
geei wonder why the northeast is poor
Brazil is an interesting country, I wonder why it's so irrelevant in international politics. Russia seems to be more active despite having smaller population and smaller GDP
It's a multitude of factors. Internal migration from the countryside into big cities at a much faster rate than cities could accomodate to naturally expand, small and underfunded police forces in most states (also prone to corruption like everything else), low conviction rates with very light punishments for criminals, prisons with very minimal security where criminals are basically free to build up underground networks (some of our worst street gangs were born in prisons).
Russia has nukes, they don't.
What we need is a change in how the government works. more federalism, municipalism. less centralist brasília. a prime minister etcetc
>It's also a vapid promise since the president can do next to nothing on those issues.
His whole thing is reorganizing revenue redistribution. He also wants to literally allowing people to buy guns more easily, which won't solve anything but at least will make some people feel safer.
Violence came from a few things. I think drugs were the biggest problem. Gangs became a big problem, police couldn't adapt and the lawmakers also became pussies since the 60's, as legal punishment became less and less for crime.
>I wonder why it's so irrelevant in international politics
The only difference is that Russia has a military and Brazil doesn't. It's also right next to europe. But economically we're about as relevant. Instead of oil, we sell agricultural products, mostly to china. Without Brazil, meat around the world would be much more expensive.
So the only solution would be to de-urbanize Brazil and turn its economy into agriculture-based one again?
Btw, I think your point of view is kinda flawed and limited since I guess you're part of white middle class like probably every Brazilian itt. Even if the cities (where white middle class lived) were safer/wealthier 50 years ago than now, it doesn't mean Brazil as a whole was such a paradise. If there were no blacks in the cities, it means they were in rural lands and suffered there even more (that's why they migrated to the cities after all, as life in rural areas was hell). So overall Brazil wasn't as good as you imagine it to be.
I think buying/making nukes shouldn't be a big problem for such a big and rich country like Brazil.
>So the only solution would be to de-urbanize Brazil
t. Pol Pot
>and turn its economy into agriculture-based one again?
It's already that. You don't need millions living around farmland for it to be productive. In fact, it's the opposite.
I would love to have parliamentarism, federalism, first past the post voting and descentralize the revenue but I don't think it will ever happen.
>So the only solution would be to de-urbanize Brazil and turn its economy into agriculture-based one again?
No, the solution is to police shit, actually incarcerate criminals and un-fuck the smaller local economies.
>Brazil as a whole was such a paradise
>Brazil wasn't as good as you imagine it to be.
When did I say that? All I said is that crime rates were low then.
> So overall Brazil wasn't as good as you imagine it to be.
It was never "good", it just wasn't as criminal.
>All I said is that crime rates were low then.
Or maybe rural nigs killed other nigs for a piece of bread but simply no one cared about that and report it to the police?
>No, the solution is to police shit, actually incarcerate criminals and un-fuck the smaller local economies.
Your prisons would explode then.
>t. Pol Pot
I'm actually surprised how urbanized Brazil is. You could relieve housing shortage by moving more people into the villages.
>You could relieve housing shortage by moving more people into the villages.
And have them do what? Raise chickens? It's cheaper to have them in cities because you can have most major companies in one place. Urbanization is an inevitablility around the world, and happens independent of government. And whenever a particularly murderous commie tyrant tries to de-urbanize the country (like fucking pol pot), millions die. This is a recipe for disaster. We could maybe develop the interior more and make more smaller cities, but that's also expensive and it wouldn't necessarily work.
>Or maybe rural nigs killed other nigs for a piece of bread but simply no one cared about that and report it to the police?
Conjectures.
>Your prisons would explode then.
They already are, but it's not enough, I don't care if we have to build prisons to incarcerate 20 million people, it's one of the things I don't mind paying taxes for. People in here commit crime because there is easy opportunity and very little consequence for doing it. Once that stops being the case the trend is for crime rates to go down, for example in São Paulo even the bigger crime syndicates are more careful about murder because the more well-funded police in this state investigates a much higher % of murders than in other states.